Swanni’s 2022 TV Predictions: A Mid-Year Review

Last December, I made six predictions for TV know-how in 2022 together with ones on Netflix, the NFL Sunday Ticket, regional sports activities channels and DIRECTV and Dish. Since right this moment is the 12 months’s mid-point, I assumed it could be a superb time to do a mid-year evaluation of my forecasts.

Prediction #1: The subsequent NFL Sunday Ticket contract might be cut up between two firms — ESPN+ and DIRECTV.To my shock, and lots of others, the NFL has but to award the contract for the following Sunday Ticket package deal. (DIRECTV’s present deal expires after the 2022 season.) CNBC reported final week that Apple, Amazon and Disney (for ESPN+) have all made bids, however the league’s closing resolution has been delayed by negotiations concerning whether or not the winner will bundle the Ticket with the league’s new NFL Media cell enterprise.
The information community additionally reviews that DIRECTV has not bid on the following contract, however it could be eying to make a cope with the winner that will enable it to proceed providing the Ticket to bars and eating places and maybe its total satellite tv for pc viewers.
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So my prediction might nonetheless come true, though some reviews have mentioned Apple and Amazon are the front-runners right here, and never ESPN+.
Prediction’s Mid-Year Grade:Incomplete.
Prediction #2:DIRECTV & Dish will merge.I predicted that the nation’s two satcasters will turn into one as a result of shrinking audiences and new firm missions. Here’s what I wrote on December 10, 2021:
“I predict that DIRECTV and Dish will merge in 2022. I believe it is not going to occur till the second half of the 12 months. Both Dish and DIRECTV have some preparation work to do earlier than shifting ahead. (By instance, will DIRECTV safe not less than a slice of the following Sunday Ticket contract, which might enhance its worth in Dish talks.)”
The firms have been tight-lipped a few merger, however the New York Post reported final January that they’re discussing it.
Once once more, my prediction might nonetheless occur so…
Prediction’s Mid-Year Grade:Incomplete.
Prediction #3:Netflix will merge or be bought outright.I wrote final December that Netflix would battle to generate new subscribers in 2022 as a result of rising competitors and better costs. Consequently, I predicted that it could search a associate.
“I predict that Netflix Chairman Reed Hastings and his staff will conclude the time is correct to affix with a rival to type an much more highly effective firm, one that may survive a long-term streaming battle that might be much more costly than the present one. And one that may battle again towards the seemingly alliances of different rivals, beginning with the merger of Warner Media (HBO Max) and Discovery.”
I additionally predicted that the associate would seemingly be both Disney or Comcast. But I had a favourite within the race.
“So who will win? If I had been betting right this moment, I might wager on Disney. But both firm might be within the hunt.”
Since my prediction, Netflix reported its first subscriber loss in years, inflicting its inventory to say no and triggering rumors that it might be ripe for a takeover or merger. Disney and Comcast are most frequently cited as doable suitors.
It’s early, however I nonetheless really feel assured one thing will occur right here.
Prediction’s Mid-Year Grade:Incomplete
Prediction #4:Sinclair will launch a Bally Sports service for twine cutters.Sinclair this month did launch Bally Sports Plus, a brand new service that permits followers to subscribe on to their in-market staff and not using a cable or satellite tv for pc subscription.
However, on the time of my prediction final December, it was unsure the corporate might pull it off. News reviews advised Sinclair’s sports activities unit, Diamond Sports Group, might need to declare chapter as a result of it was unable to safe carriage offers for Bally Sports with such pay TV outfits as Dish, Sling TV, YouTube TV, Hulu Live and FuboTV.
But I felt that Sinclair would nonetheless supply the cord-cutter service as a result of it was essential to the corporate’s long-term plans.
Prediction’s Mid-Year Grade:A
Prediction #5:YouTube TV, Hulu Live, Sling TV and FuboTV wouldn’t carry Bally Sports in 2022.Here’s what I wrote on December 16, 2021:
“I predict that the non-DIRECTV Stream providers is not going to add Bally Sports in 2022 for a similar motive they haven’t added it earlier than: Economics. Whether it’s Hulu Live, YouTube TV, Sling TV or FuboTV, the streamers’ revenue margins are so skinny that it’s exhausting for them to justify paying the regional sports activities channels, which do cost greater than most channels.”

(DIRECTV Stream is the one main reside streamer that carries Bally Sports.)
On June 30, 2022, there isn’t any signal that the non-DIRECTV Stream providers will add Bally Sports this 12 months or maybe ever.
Prediction’s Mid-Year Grade:A (But it might change.)
Prediction #6:Comcast is not going to carry MSG Networks.Comcast on September 30, 2021 misplaced the MSG Networks in Connecticut and components of New Jersey as a result of a carriage dispute. (MSG and MSG+ are regional sports activities channels which have the native TV rights to the New York Knicks, New York Rangers, New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils.)
On December 16, 2021, I wrote:
“I believe it’s clear now that the 2 sides are far aside and no settlement is probably going by 12 months’s finish. But what about 2022? Surely they’ll discover frequent floor sooner or later throughout the 12 months, proper? Wrong. Both firms appear unwilling to maneuver from their positions, and Comcast has a historical past of doing and not using a regional sports activities community for an indefinite time period.”
On June 30, 2022, there isn’t any signal of a settlement.
Prediction’s Mid-Year Grade:A (Could change).
Thus far, we’ve three As and three incompletes. Not unhealthy, nevertheless it’s nonetheless early.
At the tip of the 12 months, we’ll do one other evaluation of my 2021 predictions. But till then, please come again to The TV Answer Man for extra updates on these tales and lots of extra. And in case you have questions on TV know-how, you may ship them through the shape beneath:

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— Phillip Swann@tvanswerman

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